The U.S. construction sector showed clear signs of deceleration. Public sector investments in infrastructure and manufacturing are likely to have supported growth, while residential remodeling and selective new home construction likely remained a headwind. High borrowing costs, labor shortages, material price volatility, and regulatory complexity continue to pose significant challenges.

With the help of the Zacks Stock Screener, some of the companies under the broader Construction sector, including Dream Finders Homes (DFH Quick QuoteDFH - Free Report) , Primoris Services (PRIM Quick QuotePRIM - Free Report) , PotlatchDeltic Corporation (PCH Quick QuotePCH - Free Report) , Martin Marietta Materials (MLM Quick QuoteMLM - Free Report) and MasTec (MTZ Quick QuoteMTZ - Free Report) are poised to beat on earnings this reporting cycle. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)

Per the latest Earnings Trends report, the first-quarter earnings season has so far seen releases from approximately 35.3% of the construction sector’s market capitalization on the S&P 500 Index. Of them, the sector’s total earnings are down 20% from the year-ago period on 4.2% lower revenues, with 57.1% beating earnings per share (EPS) and 42.9% surpassing revenue estimates.

Factors Influencing Construction Stocks’ Q1 Results

One of the biggest tailwinds for the industry was the ramp-up of federal spending through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA). Transportation, water infrastructure, and broadband projects saw significant funding releases, resulting in a surge of activity in public works. Complementing this were industrial construction projects tied to the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act, which spurred the building of semiconductor fabs, EV battery plants, and clean energy facilities.

In the residential construction market, although a persistent shortage of existing homes is expected to have driven demand, high mortgage rates lingering, seasonal impacts, ongoing inflationary pressures and rising costs (material, labor, land) are expected to have weighed on performance. Also, homebuilders are navigating through a tough situation given increased incentive actions and lower average selling prices, thereby pressuring margins.

In commercial construction, the market was perhaps mixed but resilient. Industrial and warehouse projects are expected to have remained a bright spot, buoyed by e-commerce, supply chain reshoring, and manufacturing expansion. Data center construction may also have gained traction, driven by cloud computing and AI infrastructure needs. Hospitality construction is expected to witness a mild recovery alongside rebounding travel, while office and retail segments continue to struggle due to changing work patterns and consumer behavior.

Q1 Expectations

The overall estimate picture is a tepid one for the broader Zacks Construction sector amid challenges associated with the soft residential market, high expenses and labor constraints from the year-ago perspective. Per the latest Earnings Trends report, construction sector earnings are expected to decline 12.8% for the first quarter. This indicates a decline from the fourth quarter of 2024 growth of 1.1%. Revenues are projected to inch down 3.3%, suggesting a deceleration from 1.6% growth registered in the prior quarter.

The Zacks Methodology

Picking the right stock could be difficult unless one knows the proper method. To make the task simple, we rely on the Zacks methodology, combining a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) and a positive Earnings ESP.

Our proprietary methodology, Earnings ESP, shows the percentage difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Research shows that for stocks with this combination of the Zacks Rank and ESP, chances of a positive earnings surprise are as high as 70%.

Winning Stocks

For investors willing to adopt this strategy, we have highlighted five construction stocks that may stand out this earnings season.

Dream Finders Homes — a homebuilding company— topped earnings estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on other two occasions, with the average negative surprise being 4.4%.

Dream Finders is likely to beat expectations when it reports first-quarter 2025 results. This Zacks Rank #2 company has an Earnings ESP of +19.01%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dream Finders’ first-quarter EPS is pegged at 61 cents, representing growth of 10.9% from the year-ago reported figure.

Primoris Services —  operates as one of the largest specialty contractors and infrastructure companies — topped earnings estimates in all the trailing four quarters, with the average being 157.7%.

Primoris is likely to beat expectations when it reports first-quarter 2024 results on May 5, after market close. This Zacks Rank #2 company has an Earnings ESP of +13.02%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Primoris’ first-quarter EPS is pegged at 72 cents, representing growth of 53.2% from the year-ago reported figure.

Potlatch — a Real Estate Investment Trust — topped earnings estimates in all the trailing four quarters, with the average being 100%.

Potlatch is likely to beat expectations when it reports first-quarter 2025 results on April 28, after market close. This Zacks Rank #1 company has an Earnings ESP of +2.56%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Potlatch’s first-quarter EPS is pegged at 20 cents, representing an improvement from break-even earnings a year ago.
 

Martin Marietta Materials — construction aggregates producer — topped earnings estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on other two occasions, with the average negative surprise being 1.7%.

Martin Marietta is likely to beat expectations when it reports first-quarter 2025 results. This Zacks Rank #3 company has an Earnings ESP of +1.66%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Martin Marietta’s first-quarter EPS is pegged at $1.92, representing a decline by a penny from a year ago.
 

MasTec — a leading infrastructure construction company — topped earnings estimates in all the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 31.6%.

MasTec is likely to beat expectations when it reports first-quarter 2025 results on May 1, 2025. This Zacks Rank #3 company has an Earnings ESP of +0.85%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MasTec’s first-quarter EPS is pegged at 34 cents, representing a significant 361.5% growth from a year ago.